Inspecting the Romo Coaster

Tony Romo is good. Last night, Tony Romo led the Dallas Cowboys to an opening night victory against the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants. He finished with a 75.9% completion percentage, 307 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT. He played a good game. I’m not going to tell you that Tony Romo is anything he isn’t. He does not suck, he isn’t terrible. He’s not great either. He’s good.

In baseball, a pitcher’s wins and losses don’t mean as much as they used to. There are too many factors that come into play that are out of the pitcher’s control: run support, defense, bullpen. It’s just unfair to judge a pitcher by their win total. Felix Hernandez won the 2010 AL Cy Young award1 with a record of just 13-12 because his other stats were so much better than every other pitcher. He also pitched at such a high level that he should have won many more than just 13 games. This isn’t true for quarterbacks, however. In last season’s opening night game, Drew Brees threw for 419 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 65.3% completion percentage.  The Saints lost that game. Did Drew Brees lose that game? Maybe. There might have been plays where he missed his receiver, or overthrown a receiver, or audibled into a play for negative yards, or didn’t move the chains on a crucial 3rd down. There is just so much that the quarterback is responsible for during a football game that the end results almost always comes down to the quarterbacks performance. In the end of that Saints game, Aaron Rodgers outplayed Drew Brees. When your favorite team’s quarterback gets outplayed, they’re losing2.

Dallas is a favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year3. Their defense has had another year under Rob Ryan, and their weak secondary has been drastically upgraded with the additions of Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne. DeMarcus Ware is still a prolific pass rusher, and Sean Lee looks to improve on his breakout year last year. The defense, as seen last night, will be strong. The offense has the playmakers to be a special group: Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin. DeMarco Murray still needs to prove he can remain healthy, and the offensive line needs to answer the doubts that their shaky performance in the preseason brought on. This team, on paper, should make the playoffs. In the end, though, it all comes down to Tony Romo.

Last night, Tony Romo outplayed Eli Manning, and the Cowboys won. ESPN’s Skip Bayless was quick to call it his “most significant performance,” besides his playoff win, to date. This is, in many ways, true. Tony Romo’s “significant performance” was only: 307 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, and 75.9% completion percentage game. The only reason his playoff win ranks higher is because it’s his only one. Tony Romo, since 2006 when he took over the starting job, has one playoff win. Here is a list of active players who have more playoff wins than Tony Romo: Michael Vick, Rex Grossman, Philip Rivers, Mark Sanchez, Matt Hasselbeck, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady. Here are the active quarterbacks that also have only a single playoff win: T.J. Yates, Tim Tebow, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, David Garrard4. Out of that group with only one playoff win, Romo has the lowest winning percentage with .250. Here are some other illustrious quarterbacks with more playoff wins than Tony Romo: Wade Wilson, Chad Pennington, John Poland, Richard Todd, Tommy Krammer, Billy Kilmer5. Tony Romo has not performed when his team needed him the most. It might be a simple argument, but it’s really the only one you need.

But, that’s obviously not going to be good enough for those defending Tony Romo by saying that his stats are great and he is coming off his best statistical year ever, and that partially true. Here is Romo’s simplified stat line from last year.

  • 16 games             66.3% completion percentage     4,184 yards         31 TDs   10 INTs

That is what some are calling Tony Romo’s best season yet. Here’s the dirty little secret, only the completion percentage6 and his low INTs were career bests. He had more yards in both 2007 and 2009. He had more touchdowns in 2007. Here is the other thing that doesn’t bode well for Tony Romo. In a season where the NFL had its passing records shattered across the board, and the entire league shifted to a predominantly vertical attack; he didn’t even have his best season. He was seventh in the league in passing yards last year only 133 yards in front of rookie, Cam Newton, who finished tenth, and he was a whopping 440 yards behind the guy in front of him, Philip Rivers, who, by the way, threw 20 INTs last year. In a year when quarterbacks were setting individual career highs in passing yards left and right, Tony Romo regressed. He was also fifth in passing touchdowns, but eight behind the forth place finisher, Tom Brady. Listen, Tony Romo had a good year last year, but that’s exactly my point. He was good.

If you read this and think that I think that Tony Romo is a terrible quarterback and he sucks, well, no. Tony Romo is a good quarterback, and I can think of 20 teams that would trade their quarterback for him in a millisecond. The “Romo Coaster” has its up and downs. He can be great and frustratingly bad all in the same game, but when it’s all averaged out it turns out that Tony Romo isn’t either, great or bad. He is good. The Cowboys need Tony Romo to be great this year if they are going to compete for a Super Bowl title. Sometimes he can give them that, but sometimes he can’t. Don’t get me wrong. Tony Romo is good, just not good enough.

  1. This was the sabermetric crowds crowning achievement. Statgeeks everywhere cheered, and there was much rejoicing.
  2. The Patriots were in back-to-back games this postseason where Tom Brady was outplayed. Once by Joe Flacco (which they should have lost) and once by Eli Manning. This footnote almost killed me.
  3. Aren’t they every year? I wouldn’t pick them. It’s like the “Scorpion and the Frog” where the Frog offers to carry the Scorpion across the river, and they both drown because Rob Ryan tried to jump his fat ass on the Frog, too.
  4. I counted Garrard because he was in training camp, and he was good enough to be the Dolphins starting QB if not for injuries, but mostly so I could add another name to the list.
  5. I only made one of those names up.
  6. Not counting his injury shortened 2010.
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